List News    News

AfDB brief on economic outlook in Tunisia

Published the:  13/04/2011

| Share

April 13, 2011 - TAP - The contribution of the African Development Bank (AfDB) to the financing of projects in Tunisia for 2011 could reach one billion dollars.
The African Bank indeed renewed this week readiness to support ''its longstanding partners and second client after Morocco" in this transitional period.
The bank published, last March 11, a brief on " The Revolution in Tunisia: Economic Challenges and Prospects" to ease the working out of a support strategy to Tunisia. This brief, at a time when the country's Interim Government announced its plan for economic recovery, set up three economic scenarios for the next two years taking into account several decisive factors like, among others, the unemployment of young graduates, regional disparities, governance and business climate.
Other indicators were taken into consideration such as lower tourism revenues and reduction of DFI to calculate the growth of GDP in Tunisia.
The first scenario, the most optimistic one, provides for a GDP growth of 3,6 % in 2011 and 4,2 % in 2012 in case of rapid normalisation of the economy and revival of tourist trade as well as through strong foreign financing, increase in DFI and financial revival.
Less optimistic is the second scenario which provides for a GDP rise of 1,1 % in 2011 and a slight revival of the economy at 3,3 % in 2012, due to a decline in private investments and a rise in public spending to meet growing social demands.
According to this scenario, the financial deficit will rise to 5,2 % of the GDP in 2011 and the current deficit will increase to stand at 7,6% of the GDP due to the rise in imports and the decline of tourism revenues.
In case of extended political and social instability, the AfDB brief provides, in a third scenario, for a ''slow growth'' estimated at 2,5% in 2011 but nevertheless for a revival of the GDP growth rate of about 2,4% in 2012.